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# Roberto Plaja

## Sitemaps
[XML Sitemap](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/sitemap_index.xml): Includes all crawlable and indexable pages.

## Posts
- [On timing and patience](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/07/26/on-timing-and-patience/): You may have the right idea, but you may still lose. It always fascinates me how certain well understood and economically justifiable anomalies tend to correct themselves in very sudden and unexplainable manners. It’s the kind of stuff that mesmerises analysts and makes the fortunes of ‘star investors’ who were simply in the right place at the right time (more succinctly, plain lucky).
- [Don’t Let the Tax Tail Wag the Investment Dog](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/07/12/dont-let-the-tax-tail-wag-the-investment-dog/): Taxes are important but should not be the main concern. Confusion seems to persist for many investors as to what comes first - investment or fiscal strategy? There is a fact that needs to be kept in mind when approaching this confusion: the investment strategy, together with the time horizon, determines the size of the pie the investor is likely to get; the fiscal strategy the investor pursues determines the proportion of that pie the investor gets to keep (for immediate consumption or reinvestment). Often we tend to focus much more on the latter than the former. We let the tail wag the dog.
- [On gold, briefly](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/06/28/on-gold-briefly/): Recently, a newsletter on ETFs began one of its daily pieces with this sentence: What does it say about the global economy and geopolitical unrest when financial advisors are hunkering down with increasing allocations to gold in client portfolios?
- [Procrastination](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/06/21/procrastination/): Humans excel at procrastinating. When solutions to important matters require actions which are identifiable and, with organization, executable in time we stand still and let inertia take over. Three instances come to mind.
- [Parting ways](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/06/14/parting-ways/): I have decided to separate the English and the Italian versions of my periodic notes into two separate posts. If you are receiving the wrong version, please let me know and I will correct the language assignment (including receiving both versions). Or, if you prefer, go to orthos.ch/blog where you can find all posts under the language of your choice.
- [2024-05-31: 18 minutes](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/05/31/2024-05-31-18-minutes/): Speaking with a client I came across, not for the first time, a question that remains absolutely essential to those seeking solutions in managing their finances: who do you ask for help? My client’s perplexities arise from both the imprecise definition of some terms and the opacity with which they are freely used by investment management and banking groups.
- [2024-05-24: Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/05/24/2024-05-24-markets/): Nebulous thoughts, I know; but I have to get them off my chest. There are two things I cannot reconcile in the context of today's benign and relaxed markets: their singularly focussed obsession with the imminent direction of monetary policies around the globe, and their lack of concern for important changes in the world's order and functioning.
- [2024-05-17: Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/05/17/2024-05-17-markets/): Today a very brief comment supplemented with the customary returns table.
- [2024-05-03: Star](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/05/03/2024-05-03-star/): Our memories are tricky, we know that; they change and evolve with time, emotions and moods, getting progressively more distant form the actual events.
- [2024-04-26: Expectations](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/04/26/2024-04-26-expectations/): Within the span of six short months, in America we have come full circle: at the end of last year we were expecting between 4-6 interest rates cuts in 2024, now we are at only 1-2 cuts, with 20% of the market expecting an interest rate rise.
- [2024-04-19: Nature](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/04/19/2024-04-19-nature/): If you haven't already you should read the book in the cover. Written by a well-known Italian climber, explorer, journalist and writer it is an eye-opener and well worth the time. It was published in 2009, just when we were all concerned about financial meltdowns and other much less charming humanly-caused events.
- [2024-04-12: Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/04/12/2024-04-12-markets/): As the two cover images attest, in the span of a little over five months we have come full circle from inebriated optimism to a much somber reality. Official rates are now being estimated to come down with more moderation (some people are beginning to mutter 'if at all').
- [2024-04-05: Liquidity](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/04/05/2024-04-05-liquidity/): This week, an article in The Financial Times brought reality to the evolving interpretation of the value and function asset liquidity has in portfolio management.
- [2024-03-29: Happy Easter](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/03/29/2024-03-29-happy-easter/): In memory of two giants of the arts and sciences.
Happy Easter to you and your families.
- [2024-03-22: Testimonials](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/03/22/2024-03-22-testimonials/): There are few activities more humbling than being a portfolio manager; so much of short-term results depends on pure chance. Yet humility is in very short supply in the business, on both sides: managers and clients. Sometimes a few month or a couple of years of good numbers are hailed as the birth of a new guru or megatrend. Often it all ends in tears almost as quickly as the gestation period.
- [2024-03-15: Musings](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/03/15/2024-03-15-musings/): An old query that never seems to go away. 'What is the smart money doing these days?'
'I don't know; but here's the thing: knowing what the smart money is doing is equally valuable to knowing what the dumb money is doing, as long as one is always right and the other always wrong.'
- [2024-03-08: Letter to shareholders](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/03/08/2024-03-08-letter-to-shareholders/): Recently someone asked me for a stock tip. Immediately I think of two characteristic behaviors of single-stock buyers: the lack of attention for what it is that they are buying, and lack of interest in the management of the enterprise.
- [2024-03-01: Time](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/03/01/2024-03-01-time/): Time allows us to deal with price volatility and for compounding to work its magic. Time is what defines investing as such and what distinguishes it from other activities in the market.
- [2024-02-23: The importance of expectations](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/02/23/2024-02-23-the-importance-of-expectations/): There are three reasons the investment management industry cannot consistently produce the desired effects of beating the markets on a large scale (the exceptions exist, though unclear if by skill or luck): the difficulty of predicting the future, the quality of the investment professionals, and accurately determining market expectations (1).
- [2024-02-16: Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/02/16/2024-02-16-markets/): It is comforting to realize that much of the disinformation - intentional or otherwise - we see today is not a new phenomenon.
- [2024-02-09: Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/02/09/2024-02-09-markets/): It sometimes happens that someone - client or not - asks me why exactly am I getting paid, for what contribution or task. The question on its surface is not silly: my well-known philosophy on markets and how to run portfolios is focussed on the use of passive vehicles, avoiding a lot of trading and especially controlling costs. What could be simpler than to follow such watch-the-grass-grow approach?
- [2024-02-02: Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/02/02/2024-02-02-markets/): Seems like very little can get in the way of the US economy these days. The policies enacted over the past 2-3 years and the abundant energy of the US consumer are having unexpected, for some, results.
- [2024-01-26: Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/01/26/2024-01-26-markets/): I often make the comparison that investing is like running a marathon, not sprinting for a few seconds or minutes. Time is of the essence, and not necessarily in the usual sense that faster is better.
- [2024-01-19: Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/01/19/2024-01-19-markets/): With some equity markets in the news for making all-time highs, you would think year-to-date results should look more exciting.
- [2024-01-12: Markets (and Real Estate)](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/01/12/2024-01-12-markets-and-real-estate/): You buy a new car and when you go to pick it up you find that it does not have windshield wipers ('They'll arrive in a week; just don't drive in the rain'), the seats don't stand straight ("Good for your abdominals; don't take long trips') and after a few kilometers it loses a hubcap or even a wheel ('Hey stuff happens; I didn't assemble the car; stop driving for a while'). Funny? No. Farfetched? Maybe.
- [2024-01-05: Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2024/01/05/2024-01-05-markets/): After a sizzling end to 2023, with global equities up 9.4% in the last two months (Euro terms), it was perhaps to be expected that the first short week in January would be somewhat muted.
- [2023-12-29 – Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/12/29/2023-12-29-markets/): The past week was relatively muted in terms of action, as you would expect in this seasonal period; the whole year was a different story.
- [Merry Christmas](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/12/22/merry-christmas/): Best wishes for a merry and peaceful Christmas day.
- [2023-12-15 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/12/15/2023-12-08-markets/): When it comes to communicating with the markets and managing expectations, the Federal Reserve Board under Jerome Powell has been one of the most effective official organisations I have seen in my career.
- [2023-12-08 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/12/08/2023-12-08-markets-copy/): Markets had another good week, buoyed by more news that indicated we are on the path to a gradual moderation of economic activity without falling into a recession.
- [2023-12-01 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/12/01/2023-12-01-markets/): “Unfortunately civility is hard to codify or legislate, but you know it when you see it. It’s possible to disagree without being disagreeable.”
Sandra Day O’Connor
- [2023-11-17 Markets + Immigration and More](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/11/17/2023-11-17-markets-immigration-and-more/): Much of the so-called developed world is rapidly or about to begin losing population, with Japan and Italy perhaps the most glaring examples and, oddly, the US not far behind (cover and first graph below).
- [2023-11-03 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/11/03/2023-11-03-markets/): The last four weeks have been full of important events, the most visible of them linked to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Looking at what financial markets did over the same period you would have never guessed much had happened.
- [2023-10-06 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/10/06/2023-10-06-markets/): The last couple of weeks made us feel like we returned to the horrible 2022: both equities and bonds were down and in a significant way.
- [2023-09-15 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/09/15/2023-10-06-markets-2/): Despite another expected rise in official rates (in the Eurozone), equities outperformed bonds last week, maybe because investors think (or hope) that every successive tightening brings us closer to the end of the monetary cycle.
- [2023-09-08 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/09/08/2023-09-08-markets/): For the past few months the basic story (I should say 'theme' but I hate the word) in the markets has been the same, causing rising discomfort pretty much everywhere.
- [2023-08-25 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/08/25/2023-08-25-markets/): On inflation again and on why it is so difficult to think of it as moving in a unique direction or as a simple monetary issue. ---
- [2023-08-18 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/08/18/2023-08-18-markets/): As some of you know, I've been skeptical of the possibility that inflation would soon return to where it was before COVID. My idea was that the historical long-term averages (broadly 2-4% per year) would eventually prevail. Two events now could force me to change my mind, at least temporarily.
- [2023-08-11 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/08/11/2023-08-11-markets/): Even on a hot summer day you have to wonder whether we will ever go back to working in an office as we did before, air-conditioning and all. Builders are getting the message.
- [2023-08-04 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/08/04/2023-08-04-markets/): Recent nervousness in the bond market and oscillating monetary policy expectations are beginning to bother equities. How long-lasting this effect will be is anyone's guess; but while the focus is on earnings and especially quarterly results, it is useful to ponder what a more restrictive fiscal policy may mean for the direction of stock prices (see cover graph).
- [2023-07-28 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/07/28/2023-07-28-markets/): Despite another expected rise in official rates (in the Eurozone), equities outperformed bonds last week, maybe because investors think (or hope) that every successive tightening brings us closer to the end of the monetary cycle.
- [2023-07-21 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/07/21/2023-07-21-markets/): Economic news was mixed last week, with China growing below expectations and inflation moderating. Markets continued to have a good run, especially equities.
- [2023-07-14 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/07/14/2023-07-14-markets/): The last three weeks have continued to be friendly to equities and somewhat hostile to bonds.
- [2023-06-23 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/06/23/2023-06-23-markets/): A turbulent week for equities and a relaxing one for bonds. Strange then that all the fuss was centered on inflationary news and how these would impact upcoming monetary policies.
- [2023-06-16 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/06/16/2023-06-16-markets/): The stock market has decided that central banks are close to the end of the tightening cycle. I think that is certainly true in relation to, say, 6 months ago, but I remain cautious because there are indications that further tightening may come and continue for longer than we would like.
- [2023-06-09 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/06/09/2023-06-09-markets/): Emerging market equities were the star of the group this week (+1.3% in Euro terms), reflecting perhaps a renewed enthusiasm for global growth prospects. Otherwise most of the non-financial news ranged between the hopeful (Trump's indictment) and the horrific (Russian attacks on flood victims).
- [2023-06-02 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/06/02/2023-06-02-markets/): No comment. Don't want to spoil the warm feeling we may get from looking at the figures. Have a great Sunday.
- [2023-05-26 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/05/26/2023-05-26-markets/): These days one cannot escape an enhanced feeling of cluelessness, similar to the one exhibited by the poor animal in the cover picture.
- [Markets & Mercati 2023-05-19](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/05/17/markets-mercati-2023-05-19/): A very positive week for equities, 'risk assets' as some like to call them, and a correspondingly negative one for bonds ('safe assets').
- [2023-05-12 Markets](https://theboxisthereforareason.com/2023/05/12/2023-05-12-markets/): Supportive news on inflation and improving prospects for less restrictive monetary policies pushed the markets higher, despite the increasing tensions about the debt ceiling negotiations in the US.

The Box Is There For A Reason is a specialized blog focused on financial and economic analysis. It provides in-depth insights into market trends, global economics, and personal finance. The content is designed to offer clear, data-driven perspectives for readers interested in understanding the complexities of the financial world.