2023-06-16 Markets
The stock market has decided that central banks are close to the end of the tightening cycle. I think that is certainly true in relation to, say, 6 months ago, but I remain cautious because there are indications that further tightening may come and continue for longer than we would like.
People have been fearful for ages of what China may do to ‘reclaim’ Taiwan as their territory. I suspect that the Chines are more economically minded than the Russians in prioritizing their territorial ambitions, especially after witnessing the reactions of the world to the Ukrainian invasion. The cover chart (from Citibank Research) helps quantify the potential economic cost of choosing between peace and war: 43 million people are unemployed in China. I doubt they – and the many more coming if war broke out – would have much patience with aggression.
Second graph below (also from Citibank Research): interesting, but is it relevant? does it help you make money?
People have been fearful for ages of what China may do to ‘reclaim’ Taiwan as their territory. I suspect that the Chines are more economically minded than the Russians in prioritizing their territorial ambitions, especially after witnessing the reactions of the world to the Ukrainian invasion. The cover chart (from Citibank Research) helps quantify the potential economic cost of choosing between peace and war: 43 million people are unemployed in China. I doubt they – and the many more coming if war broke out – would have much patience with aggression.
Second graph below (also from Citibank Research): interesting, but is it relevant? does it help you make money?
