Have you checked the weather today? While models can be useful for gaining insights that can help us make good decisions, they are inherently incomplete simplifications of reality.
Using data on current and past weather conditions, a meteorologist makes a number of assumptions to approximate what the weather will be in the future.
Hilarious grew up in a bad part of South London where, because of his silly name, he had to learn to run fast at a very early age. He often sought refuge in the local library, somewhere he could be sure his knuckle-dragging pursuers would never go. And it was there he developed a passion for reading, writing and Miss Peabody, the local librarian. Today, Hilarious is a freelance writer.
Sam is a passionate value investor, who is focused on generating long-term, market-beating returns by investing in high-quality opportunities in the stock market and providing patient capital to Swiss and European SMEs. Original piece in German here.
Passive Portfolios That Try Too Much by Having Many Positions Risk to Defeat the Purpose.
“Hey Pete, doesn’t she look like the girl we met on the Black Sea?”
Pete stared at the picture: “Not really; what happens if she needs to blow her nose?”
“What do I know.”
“By the way, it was the Dead Sea, not the Black Sea.”
“I should have tossed you in the Red Sea when I had the chance.”
Some things are more difficult to “know” than others.
“Hey Pete, is that the Atlantic or the Mediterranean?”
Last week I was strolling near the sea in the old city of Yafo with my wife and eldest son when we heard a short, bejeweled, sun-glassed American woman screaming those words at her out-of-sight traveling companion. We didn’t hear Pete’s answer.
I recently registered for the Harryman sprint triathlon that will take place an hour north of Manhattan, in Harriman State Park, where the thickest of New York City accents is thinned out by the crisp air. Scheduled for May 20th, the lake water should be freezing and the air temperature pleasant.
Embarking on a financial plan is like sailing from Europe to North America. The voyage won’t always go to plan, and there’ll be rough seas. The odds of reaching your destination increase greatly if you start by sailing west.
Excess material is never a good substitute for clear, transparent and relevant advice.
A few hours spent disposing of institutional client presentations can trigger significant memories.
Years ago, I tried to amuse my high school classics professor by offering to carry his heavy briefcase for him, “so that you may spend your energies thinking and not on your arm.”
Peter Mallouk’s book(1) should be required reading for anyone going near any market. Here are the five common investment mistakes he dwells upon.
Market Timing
People often tell me: “I have cash on the side, and I’m waiting for things to get better” or “I’ll invest my money after (insert any excuse).” Unfortunately, market timing doesn’t work; the evidence against it is overwhelming.
Regulations are meaningless without realistic proposals and intelligent enforcement.
I was recently in an economy middle seat as we prepared for takeoff. At the end of the routine safety tip announcements, the attendants pointed to the customary plastic sheet (like this one; picture slanted because the passenger to my right sneezed)