2023-11-17 Markets + Immigration and More

Much of the so-called developed world is rapidly or about to begin losing population, with Japan and Italy perhaps the most glaring examples and, oddly, the US not far behind (cover and first graph below). In contrast, much of the rest of the world finds itself in the opposite situation. Climatic, economic and political conditions and, in some cases, the simple idea of survival is pushing people from one side to look for entry in the other. Long-term economic growth is the sum of population growth and productivity; why then is it that we cannot find a solution to deal with this win-win situation? [Full disclosure: I emigrated to the United States as a student in 1973 and became a citizen there in 1996; I consider my experience one of the most uplifting and productive I could have ever imagined. Yes, I was lucky.]
 
Two reasons come to mind.
 
One is that it is natural for the inhabitants of a country to be skeptical of others coming from the outside. This negative bias can be helped through education and better organized government programs targeted to integrate migrants.
 
The other is the unnatural and vicious spread of false narratives or misleading facts which are made all too easy to believe by continuously accessible, often manipulated and heavily politicized media contents. Examples are available on a daily basis, but instead of recounting specific instances – and hoping to stop the intrusion of my unavoidable personal biases – the second graph below says it better than many other examples.
 
Over the last two weeks markets were broadly positive with the effects of prospectively easier monetary policies still doing the heavy lifting. Can this last? Have expectations run too fast? As a friend of mine said to me yesterday in a completely different context, Chi vivrà vedrà (loosely translated, Those who live will see the results).

[Axios; The Wall Street Journal; The Washington Post]